Araz vs Kapaz Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Araz
Final Score
0 – 2
(HT 0-1)
Kapaz
Kick-off 12:00 Stadium Shamakhi City Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Araz opened at -0.25 against Kapaz in the Premyer Liqa. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
Araz -0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.41 / 1.19
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Araz -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Kapaz than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Kapaz +0.25
@ 2.60
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.94
Price Advantage
+34.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
08:15
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.68 / 2.88 -0.25 1.82 / 2.49 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.72 / 3.02 -0.25 1.89 / 2.58 — 0
Bet365 0 1.75 / 2.05 -0.25 1.92 / 2.60 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.70 / 2.88 -0.25 1.84 / 2.49 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 7.50 10.00
-1.75 5.09 8.00
-1.50 3.95 6.05
-1.25 3.50 5.60
-1.00 3.14 5.15
-0.75 2.43 3.50
-0.25 1.84 2.49
0 1.58 2.17
+0.25 1.42 1.82
+0.75 1.22 1.44
+1.00 1.10 1.27
+1.25 1.08 1.22
+1.50 1.06 1.17
+1.75 1.02 1.10

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.90 5.90
-1.25 3.55 5.75
-1.00 3.10 5.25
-0.75 2.50 3.55
-0.50 2.15 3.00
-0.25 1.92 2.60
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.48 1.88
+0.50 1.38 1.68
+0.75 1.27 1.50
+1.00 1.16 1.35
+1.25 1.14 1.27
+1.50 1.13 1.24

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.10 8.00
-1.50 3.95 6.05
-1.25 3.50 5.60
-1.00 3.14 5.15
-0.75 2.43 3.50
-0.25 1.82 2.49
0 1.58 2.17
+0.25 1.42 1.80
+0.75 1.22 1.44
+1.00 1.10 1.27
+1.25 1.08 1.22
+1.50 1.06 1.17
+1.75 1.02 1.10

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.13 2.91
-0.25 1.89 2.58
0 1.62 2.27
+0.25 1.47 1.93
+0.50 1.38 1.70
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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