Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Juve Stabia
Oct 18, 2026 - 13:00
1.11 1.05
Sudtirol
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Juve Stabia opened at -0.25 against Sudtirol in the Serie B. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Juve Stabia -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Sudtirol than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Sudtirol +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.76
Price Advantage
+70.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.76 / 2.72 -0.25 1.76 / 2.72 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.85 / 3.00 -0.25 1.85 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.80 / 2.72 -0.25 1.80 / 2.72 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
xG 1.11 / 1.05 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.85
Juve Stabia @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.32
Juve Stabia @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.85 vs 2.32
Market price is 20.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.75 8.60
-1.50 3.75 6.60
-1.25 3.34 6.19
-1.00 2.97 5.75
-0.75 2.33 3.90
-0.25 1.80 2.72
0 1.53 2.38
+0.25 1.37 1.93
+0.75 1.18 1.48
+1.00 1.07 1.30
+1.25 1.06 1.24
+1.50 1.05 1.19

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.75 8.60
-1.50 3.75 6.60
-1.25 3.34 6.20
-1.00 2.97 5.75
-0.75 2.33 3.90
-0.25 1.76 2.72
0 1.53 2.38
+0.25 1.37 1.89
+0.75 1.18 1.48
+1.00 1.07 1.30
+1.25 1.06 1.24
+1.50 1.05 1.19

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.54 4.48
-0.50 2.15 3.45
-0.25 1.85 3.00
0 1.55 2.52
+0.25 1.40 2.00
+0.50 1.32 1.73
+0.75 1.21 1.53
Primary Bets
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