Arezzo vs Sudtirol Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Arezzo
Final Score
1 – 4
(HT 0-1)
Sudtirol
Kick-off 13:00 Stadium Stadio Città di Arezzo

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Arezzo opened at -0.25 against Sudtirol in the Serie B. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
Arezzo -0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.26 / 1.05
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Arezzo -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Sudtirol than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Sudtirol +0.25
@ 2.99
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.07
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.92
Price Advantage
+55.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
14:39
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
13:04
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.83 / 2.68 -0.25 1.85 / 2.68 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.94 -0.25 2.01 / 2.99 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.85 -0.25 1.95 / 2.75 -0.25 0
1xBet 0 1.59 / 2.25 -0.25 1.89 / 2.68 -0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 1.95 / 2.92 -0.25 1.95 / 2.95 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.83 / 2.77 -0.25 1.88 / 2.69 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.59 9.10
-1.50 4.30 6.95
-1.25 3.90 6.54
-1.00 3.42 6.05
-0.75 2.56 3.98
-0.25 1.89 2.68
0 1.57 2.29
+0.25 1.38 1.84
+0.75 1.17 1.40
+1.00 1.06 1.23
+1.25 1.05 1.18
+1.50 1.04 1.14

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 4.15 7.00
-1.00 3.70 6.60
-0.75 2.68 4.15
-0.50 2.25 3.30
-0.25 1.95 2.75
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.42 1.85
+0.50 1.32 1.62
+0.75 1.22 1.45
+1.00 1.11 1.26
+1.25 1.10 1.22

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.88 2.69
0 1.56 2.23
+0.25 1.39 1.79

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.30 3.45
-0.25 1.95 2.95
+0.25 1.42 1.90
+0.50 1.33 1.65

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.55 9.10
-1.50 4.30 7.00
-1.25 3.90 6.55
-1.00 3.42 6.05
-0.75 2.56 3.98
-0.25 1.85 2.68
0 1.57 2.29
+0.25 1.38 1.80
+0.75 1.17 1.40
+1.00 1.06 1.23
+1.25 1.05 1.18
+1.50 1.04 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.91 4.68
-0.50 2.38 3.53
-0.25 2.01 2.99
0 1.62 2.43
+0.25 1.43 1.89
+0.50 1.33 1.64
+0.75 1.22 1.45
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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