AD Cofutpa vs Santa Cruz FC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

AD Cofutpa
Final Score
3 – 1
Santa Cruz FC
Kick-off 21:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

AD Cofutpa opened at 0 against Santa Cruz FC in the Liga de Ascenso. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward AD Cofutpa from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.25 / 1.35
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
AD Cofutpa -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Santa Cruz FC than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Santa Cruz FC +0.25
@ 2.38
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+43.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
0
20:37
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
20:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.88 / 1.78 -0.25 1.90 / 2.33 -0.25 -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.82 / 1.89 -0.25 1.97 / 2.38 -0.25 -0.25
Bet365 0 1.82 / 1.98 0 1.82 / 1.98 0 0
1xBet 0 1.80 / 1.90 -0.25 1.92 / 2.33 0 -0.25
BetVictor -0.25 1.86 / 1.96 -0.25 1.80 / 2.02 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 7.70 9.70
-1.50 4.15 5.40
-1.25 3.74 4.38
-1.00 3.34 4.60
-0.75 2.56 3.28
-0.25 1.92 2.33
0 1.66 2.03
+0.25 1.48 1.74
+0.75 1.25 1.40
+1.00 1.13 1.24
+1.25 1.14 1.19
+1.50 1.09 1.16

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.82 1.98

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.02 2.24
-0.25 1.80 2.02
0 1.58 1.76
+0.25 1.42 1.55
+0.50 1.33 1.42

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 7.70 9.70
-1.50 4.15 5.40
-1.25 3.75 4.30
-1.00 3.34 4.60
-0.75 2.56 3.28
-0.25 1.90 2.33
0 1.66 2.03
+0.25 1.48 1.73
+0.75 1.25 1.40
+1.00 1.13 1.24
+1.25 1.15 1.19
+1.50 1.09 1.16

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.60 3.01
-0.50 2.23 2.70
-0.25 1.97 2.38
0 1.67 2.06
+0.25 1.48 1.76
+0.50 1.38 1.57
+0.75 1.31 1.41
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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