Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Mbeya City
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 1-1)
Kagera Sugar
Kick-off 13:15 Stadium Sokoine Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Mbeya City opened at 0 against Kagera Sugar in the Ligi kuu Bara. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Mbeya City from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.36 / 1.24
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Mbeya City -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.14
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.14 AH points more toward Kagera Sugar than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Kagera Sugar +0.25
@ 2.56
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.14
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.84
Price Advantage
+39.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
09:56
Opening
0
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.78 / 1.88 -0.25 1.85 / 2.56 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.81 / 1.91 -0.25 1.92 / 2.45 — -0.25
1xBet 0 1.83 / 1.83 0 1.83 / 1.83 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.70 5.65
-1.25 4.34 5.10
-1.00 4.65 4.60
-0.75 3.08 3.08
-0.25 2.18 2.14
0 1.83 1.83
+0.25 1.57 1.58
+0.75 1.28 1.28
+1.00 1.13 1.12
+1.25 1.10 1.14
+1.50 1.08 1.08

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.65 7.20
-1.25 4.15 5.15
-1.00 3.58 6.10
-0.75 2.59 3.85
-0.25 1.85 2.56
0 1.57 2.18
+0.25 1.40 1.77
+0.75 1.18 1.39
+1.00 1.06 1.21
+1.25 1.10 1.16
+1.50 1.03 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.41 3.67
-0.75 2.57 2.63
-0.50 2.17 2.78
-0.25 1.92 2.45
0 1.62 2.12
+0.25 1.46 1.79
+0.50 1.36 1.60
+0.75 1.40 1.41
+1.00 1.21 1.24
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More