Municipal Limeño vs Firpo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Municipal Limeño
Oct 11, 2026 - 23:30
1.27 1.33
Firpo
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 2 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Municipal Limeño opened at -0.25 against Firpo in the Primera Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 2 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Municipal Limeño -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 2 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Firpo than the current market.

Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 valid books · 100% agreement · Insufficient

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.70 / 1.91 -0.25 2.70 / 1.91 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.37 / 1.92 -0.25 2.37 / 1.92 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
xG 1.27 / 1.33 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.70
Municipal Limeño @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.45
Municipal Limeño @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.70 vs 2.45
Market price is 10.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.90 4.50
-1.00 4.95 3.58
-0.75 3.34 2.66
-0.25 2.37 1.92
0 2.03 1.66
+0.25 1.71 1.48
+0.75 1.37 1.24
+1.00 1.21 1.11
+1.50 1.13 1.07

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.10 2.20
-0.25 2.70 1.91
0 2.30 1.59
+0.25 1.88 1.42
+0.50 1.64 1.33
Primary Bets
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