Municipal Limeño vs FAS Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Municipal Limeño
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 0-0)
FAS
Kick-off 23:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Municipal Limeño opened at -0.25 against FAS in the Primera Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
Municipal Limeño +0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.19 / 1.41
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Municipal Limeño -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.45
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.45 AH points more toward FAS than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
FAS +0.25
@ 2.01
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.45
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.58
Price Advantage
+27.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:15
Opening
-0.25
20:36
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.49 / 1.91 -0.25 2.42 / 1.94 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.56 / 1.98 -0.25 2.47 / 2.01 — 0
Bet365 0 2.05 / 1.75 -0.25 2.60 / 2.00 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.52 / 1.91 -0.25 2.45 / 1.94 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.10 / 1.76 -0.25 2.13 / 1.74 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.20 4.55
-1.25 4.88 4.11
-1.00 5.20 3.58
-0.75 3.50 2.70
-0.25 2.45 1.94
0 2.05 1.65
+0.25 1.70 1.46
+0.75 1.36 1.22
+1.00 1.21 1.10
+1.25 1.16 1.11
+1.50 1.13 1.06

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.90 4.00
-1.25 5.50 3.70
-1.00 5.00 3.30
-0.75 3.55 2.60
-0.50 3.00 2.25
-0.25 2.60 2.00
0 2.20 1.65
+0.25 1.80 1.48
+0.50 1.62 1.38
+0.75 1.48 1.27
+1.00 1.32 1.17
+1.25 1.26 1.15
+1.50 1.23 1.13

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.13 1.74
0 1.86 1.51
+0.25 1.60 1.37

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.20 4.55
-1.00 5.20 3.58
-0.75 3.50 2.70
-0.25 2.42 1.94
0 2.05 1.65
+0.25 1.70 1.44
+0.75 1.36 1.22
+1.00 1.21 1.10
+1.50 1.13 1.06

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.43 2.70
-0.50 2.83 2.30
-0.25 2.47 2.01
0 2.12 1.68
+0.25 1.79 1.49
+0.50 1.59 1.39
+0.75 1.42 1.28
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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