Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Al Shahaniya
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:45
1.25 1.35
Lusail City
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Al Shahaniya opened at -0.25 against Lusail City in the Stars League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Al Shahaniya -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Lusail City than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Lusail City +0.25
@ 2.95
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+77.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.75 / 2.56 -0.25 1.73 / 2.59 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.79 / 2.95 -0.25 1.79 / 2.95 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.92 / 2.50 -0.25 1.92 / 2.50 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.75 / 2.56 -0.25 1.73 / 2.59 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.79 / 2.61 -0.25 1.74 / 2.71 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
xG 1.25 / 1.35 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.79
Al Shahaniya @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.52
Al Shahaniya @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.79 vs 2.52
Market price is 29.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 6.40 9.80
-1.75 4.50 8.05
-1.50 3.50 6.15
-1.25 3.17 5.74
-1.00 2.88 5.30
-0.75 2.26 3.70
-0.25 1.73 2.59
0 1.50 2.28
+0.25 1.39 1.90
+0.75 1.20 1.51
+1.00 1.09 1.34
+1.25 1.07 1.28
+1.50 1.06 1.22
+1.75 1.03 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.65 7.00
-1.50 3.70 5.50
-1.25 3.45 5.00
-1.00 3.10 4.50
-0.75 2.42 3.45
-0.50 2.00 2.85
-0.25 1.92 2.50
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.50 1.88
+0.50 1.40 1.80
+0.75 1.30 1.52
+1.00 1.19 1.35
+1.25 1.17 1.30
+1.50 1.15 1.26
+1.75 1.10 1.18

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.74 2.71
0 1.50 2.35
+0.25 1.39 1.94

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.50 7.40
-1.50 3.50 6.15
-1.25 3.14 5.75
-1.00 2.88 5.30
-0.75 2.26 3.70
-0.25 1.73 2.59
0 1.50 2.28
+0.25 1.39 1.90
+0.75 1.20 1.51
+1.00 1.09 1.34
+1.25 1.07 1.27
+1.50 1.06 1.22
+1.75 1.03 1.13

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.38 4.22
-0.50 2.05 3.35
-0.25 1.79 2.95
0 1.52 2.52
+0.25 1.39 2.03
+0.50 1.31 1.76
+0.75 1.21 1.56
Primary Bets
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