Guimaraes B vs Pacos Ferreira Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Guimaraes B
Oct 11, 2026 - 13:00
1.33 1.27
Pacos Ferreira
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Guimaraes B opened at -0.25 against Pacos Ferreira in the Liga 3. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Guimaraes B -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Pacos Ferreira than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Pacos Ferreira +0.25
@ 2.80
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+56.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.79 / 2.62 -0.25 1.77 / 2.69 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.85 / 2.84 -0.25 1.85 / 2.80 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.81 / 2.62 -0.25 1.79 / 2.69 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
xG 1.33 / 1.27 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.85
Guimaraes B @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.27
Guimaraes B @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.85 vs 2.27
Market price is 18.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.10 7.40
-1.00 3.14 6.25
-0.75 2.41 4.00
-0.25 1.79 2.69
0 1.51 2.31
+0.25 1.36 1.87
+0.75 1.17 1.45
+1.00 1.06 1.27
+1.50 1.03 1.16

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.70 6.40
-1.25 3.45 6.00
-1.00 3.00 5.75
-0.75 2.38 3.90
-0.50 2.08 3.30
-0.25 1.82 2.75
0 1.55 2.38
+0.25 1.42 1.98
+0.50 1.32 1.72
+0.75 1.24 1.55
+1.00 1.14 1.38
+1.25 1.12 1.30
+1.50 1.12 1.26

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.10 7.40
-1.00 3.14 6.25
-0.75 2.41 4.00
-0.25 1.77 2.69
0 1.51 2.31
+0.25 1.36 1.85
+0.75 1.17 1.45
+1.00 1.06 1.27
+1.50 1.03 1.16

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.12 3.20
-0.25 1.85 2.80
0 1.56 2.41
+0.25 1.41 1.97
+0.50 1.33 1.71
Primary Bets
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