União Santarém vs Lusitano Évora 1911 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

União Santarém
Final Score
3 – 0
(HT 3-0)
Lusitano Évora 1911
Kick-off 20:00 Stadium Campo Cha das Padeiras

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

União Santarém opened at -0.25 against Lusitano Évora 1911 in the Liga 3. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.33 / 1.27
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
União Santarém -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Lusitano Évora 1911 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
União Santarém -0.25
@ 2.68
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.27
Price Advantage
+18.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
18:38
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.46 / 1.94 -0.25 2.46 / 1.94 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.81 / 1.50 0 2.17 / 1.70 — -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.68 / 1.95 -0.25 2.68 / 1.95 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.49 / 1.94 -0.25 2.49 / 1.94 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.20 5.10
-1.00 5.95 4.00
-0.75 3.75 2.78
-0.25 2.49 1.94
0 2.08 1.63
+0.25 1.70 1.44
+0.75 1.34 1.19
+1.00 1.17 1.07
+1.50 1.10 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.60 4.40
-1.25 6.00 4.00
-1.00 5.75 3.55
-0.75 3.80 2.68
-0.50 3.10 2.25
-0.25 2.68 1.95
0 2.25 1.62
+0.25 1.85 1.45
+0.50 1.62 1.35
+0.75 1.45 1.25
+1.00 1.27 1.14
+1.25 1.23 1.12
+1.50 1.20 1.11

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.20 5.10
-1.00 5.95 4.00
-0.75 3.75 2.78
-0.25 2.46 1.94
0 2.08 1.63
+0.25 1.70 1.43
+0.75 1.34 1.19
+1.00 1.17 1.07
+1.50 1.10 1.03

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.49 2.81
-0.50 2.94 2.35
-0.25 2.55 2.05
0 2.17 1.70
+0.25 1.82 1.51
+0.50 1.61 1.39
+0.75 1.43 1.28
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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