Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Mafra
Oct 11, 2026 - 10:00
1.24 1.36
CF Os Belenenses
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Mafra opened at 0 against CF Os Belenenses in the Liga 3. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Mafra from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Mafra -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.36
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.36 AH points more toward CF Os Belenenses than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
CF Os Belenenses +0.25
@ 2.03
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.36
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.64
Price Advantage
+23.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.95 / 1.72 -0.25 2.41 / 1.90 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.10 / 1.75 -0.25 2.59 / 2.03 — -0.25
Bet365 0 2.02 / 1.78 0 2.02 / 1.78 — 0
1xBet 0 1.95 / 1.72 -0.25 2.43 / 1.90 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
xG 1.24 / 1.36 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.59
Mafra @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.55
Mafra @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.59 vs 2.55
Market price is 1.6% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.95 4.40
-1.00 5.10 3.50
-0.75 3.42 2.62
-0.25 2.43 1.90
0 2.06 1.64
+0.25 1.73 1.46
+0.75 1.38 1.23
+1.00 1.22 1.10
+1.50 1.14 1.07

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 2.02 1.78

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.95 4.40
-1.00 5.10 3.50
-0.75 3.42 2.62
-0.25 2.41 1.90
0 2.06 1.64
+0.25 1.73 1.45
+0.75 1.38 1.23
+1.00 1.22 1.10
+1.50 1.14 1.07

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.59 2.80
-0.50 3.00 2.35
-0.25 2.59 2.03
0 2.18 1.68
+0.25 1.80 1.47
+0.50 1.58 1.36
+0.75 1.41 1.27
Primary Bets
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