Stockton Town vs United of Manchester Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Stockton Town
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1.26 1.34
United of Manchester
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Stockton Town opened at -0.25 against United of Manchester in the Non League Premier - Northern. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Stockton Town -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward United of Manchester than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
United of Manchester +0.25
@ 2.56
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+53.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.78 / 2.56 -0.25 1.78 / 2.56 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.86 / 2.52 -0.25 1.86 / 2.52 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.80 / 2.56 -0.25 1.80 / 2.56 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
xG 1.26 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.86
Stockton Town @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.48
Stockton Town @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.86 vs 2.48
Market price is 25.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.80 8.10
-1.50 3.76 6.15
-1.25 3.34 5.74
-1.00 2.97 5.30
-0.75 2.33 3.58
-0.25 1.80 2.56
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.40 1.86
+0.75 1.21 1.48
+1.00 1.09 1.30
+1.25 1.07 1.24
+1.50 1.06 1.19
+1.75 1.02 1.12

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.80 8.10
-1.50 3.76 6.15
-1.25 3.34 5.75
-1.00 2.97 5.30
-0.75 2.33 3.58
-0.25 1.78 2.56
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.40 1.84
+0.75 1.21 1.48
+1.00 1.09 1.30
+1.25 1.07 1.24
+1.50 1.06 1.19
+1.75 1.02 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.08 2.82
-0.25 1.86 2.52
0 1.60 2.22
+0.25 1.46 1.89
+0.50 1.37 1.68
Primary Bets
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