Cheshunt vs Aveley Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Cheshunt
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Aveley
Kick-off 18:45

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Cheshunt opened at -0.25 against Aveley in the Non League Premier - Isthmian. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
Cheshunt +0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.18 / 1.42
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Cheshunt -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.46
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.46 AH points more toward Aveley than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Cheshunt -0.25
@ 3.09
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.46
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.78
Price Advantage
+11.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:30
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.66 / 1.72 -0.25 3.08 / 1.56 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 2.93 / 1.98 -0.50 2.93 / 1.73 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.67 / 1.73 -0.25 3.09 / 1.57 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.20 3.76
-1.50 7.60 3.04
-1.25 7.10 2.71
-1.00 6.70 2.38
-0.75 4.45 2.00
-0.25 3.09 1.57
0 2.74 1.37
+0.25 2.16 1.28
+0.75 1.68 1.14
+1.00 1.46 1.05
+1.25 1.37 1.04
+1.50 1.29 1.03
+1.75 1.19 1.02

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.20 3.75
-1.50 7.60 3.04
-1.25 7.10 2.70
-1.00 6.70 2.38
-0.75 4.45 1.98
-0.25 3.08 1.56
0 2.74 1.37
+0.25 2.15 1.28
+0.75 1.67 1.14
+1.00 1.46 1.05
+1.25 1.36 1.04
+1.50 1.29 1.03
+1.75 1.19 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.93 1.73
-0.25 2.63 1.54
0 2.97 1.35
+0.25 2.36 1.42
+0.50 2.05 1.35
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More