Maldon & Tiptree vs Cray Wanderers Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Maldon & Tiptree
Final Score
1 – 5
(HT 0-3)
Cray Wanderers
Kick-off 18:45

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Maldon & Tiptree opened at -0.25 against Cray Wanderers in the Non League Premier - Isthmian. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.27 / 1.33
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Maldon & Tiptree -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Cray Wanderers than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Cray Wanderers +0.25
@ 1.92
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+13.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:15
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.20 / 1.53 -0.25 2.46 / 1.80 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.40 / 1.90 -0.25 2.41 / 1.92 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.20 / 1.53 -0.25 2.46 / 1.80 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.50 6.95
-1.50 5.80 3.76
-1.25 5.35 3.34
-1.00 4.90 3.02
-0.75 3.42 2.35
-0.25 2.46 1.80
0 2.14 1.57
+0.25 1.82 1.43
+0.75 1.47 1.23
+1.00 1.31 1.11
+1.25 1.24 1.09
+1.50 1.19 1.07

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.80 3.76
-1.25 5.35 3.34
-1.00 4.90 3.02
-0.75 3.42 2.35
-0.25 2.46 1.80
0 2.14 1.57
+0.25 1.82 1.43
+0.75 1.47 1.23
+1.00 1.31 1.11
+1.25 1.24 1.09
+1.50 1.19 1.07

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.69 2.13
-0.25 2.41 1.92
0 2.15 1.67
+0.25 1.87 1.52
+0.50 1.68 1.42
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More