Uljanik vs Križevci Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Uljanik
Final Score
3 – 1
(HT 2-0)
Križevci
Kick-off 13:30

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Uljanik opened at -0.25 against Križevci in the Second NL. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.25 / 1.35
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Uljanik -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Križevci than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Križevci +0.25
@ 3.14
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+89.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:37
Opening
-0.25
13:12
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.68 / 2.74 -0.25 1.73 / 2.66 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.79 / 2.65 -0.50 1.68 / 2.99 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.70 / 2.74 -0.25 1.74 / 2.66 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.76 / 2.72 -0.25 1.50 / 2.73 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 6.50
-1.00 2.88 5.55
-0.75 2.28 3.80
-0.25 1.74 2.66
0 1.51 2.31
+0.25 1.37 1.92
+0.75 1.19 1.50
+1.00 1.08 1.32
+1.50 1.05 1.21

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.50 2.73
0 1.36 2.82
+0.25 1.38 2.36

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.72 6.60
-1.00 2.92 5.70
-0.75 2.28 3.84
-0.25 1.73 2.66
0 1.51 2.31
+0.25 1.37 1.90
+0.75 1.18 1.50
+1.00 1.08 1.31
+1.50 1.05 1.20

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.68 2.99
-0.25 1.48 3.14
0 1.29 3.12
+0.25 1.28 2.39
+0.50 1.31 2.04
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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