Lucko vs Trnje Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Lucko
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:30
1.33 1.27
Trnje
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Lucko opened at 0 against Trnje in the Second NL. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Lucko 0
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Lucko than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Lucko 0
@ 2.04
Best Available Price · BetVictor
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.93
Price Advantage
+5.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.96 / 1.71 0 1.96 / 1.71 — 0
1xBet 0 1.96 / 1.71 0 1.96 / 1.71 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.39 / 1.97 -0.25 2.39 / 1.97 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
xG 1.33 / 1.27 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.96
Lucko @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.93
Lucko @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.96 vs 1.93
Market price is 1.6% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.25 4.35
-1.00 4.40 3.50
-0.75 3.08 2.62
-0.25 2.26 1.95
0 1.96 1.71
+0.25 1.69 1.53
+0.75 1.38 1.28
+1.00 1.22 1.14
+1.50 1.14 1.09

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.39 1.97
0 2.04 1.67
+0.25 1.72 1.49

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.25 4.35
-1.00 4.40 3.50
-0.75 3.08 2.62
-0.25 2.24 1.95
0 1.96 1.71
+0.25 1.69 1.52
+0.75 1.38 1.28
+1.00 1.22 1.14
+1.50 1.14 1.09
Primary Bets
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