Dugo Selo vs Bjelovar Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Dugo Selo
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:30
1.19 1.41
Bjelovar
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Dugo Selo opened at -0.25 against Bjelovar in the Second NL. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
Dugo Selo +0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Dugo Selo -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.45
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.45 AH points more toward Bjelovar than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Bjelovar +0.25
@ 2.56
Best Available Price · BetVictor
Line Edge
0.45
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.58
Price Advantage
+62.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.82 / 2.43 -0.25 1.82 / 2.43 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.84 / 2.43 -0.25 1.84 / 2.43 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.85 / 2.56 -0.25 1.85 / 2.56 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
xG 1.19 / 1.41 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.82
Dugo Selo @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.74
Dugo Selo @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.82 vs 2.74
Market price is 33.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.92 5.75
-1.00 3.14 4.90
-0.75 2.43 3.42
-0.25 1.84 2.43
0 1.60 2.13
+0.25 1.44 1.82
+0.75 1.23 1.44
+1.00 1.11 1.27
+1.50 1.07 1.18

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.85 2.56
0 1.58 2.19
+0.25 1.43 1.82

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.92 5.75
-1.00 3.14 4.90
-0.75 2.43 3.42
-0.25 1.82 2.43
0 1.60 2.13
+0.25 1.44 1.80
+0.75 1.23 1.44
+1.00 1.11 1.27
+1.50 1.07 1.18
Primary Bets
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