Solin vs Uljanik Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Solin
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 0-1)
Uljanik
Kick-off 15:30 Stadium Stadion Pokraj Jadra

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Solin opened at 0 against Uljanik in the Second NL. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Solin from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.30 / 1.30
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Solin -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Uljanik than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Uljanik +0.25
@ 2.66
Best Available Price · BetVictor
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+52.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
13:48
Opening
0
13:26
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.92 / 2.28 -0.25 1.75 / 2.62 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 1.99 / 2.93 -0.50 1.99 / 2.93 — 0
Bet365 0 1.78 / 2.02 0 1.78 / 2.02 — 0
1xBet 0 1.73 / 2.00 -0.25 1.77 / 2.62 — -0.25
BetVictor 0 1.72 / 1.97 -0.25 1.79 / 2.66 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.80 10.50
-1.50 3.74 6.45
-1.00 2.92 5.50
-0.75 2.30 3.76
-0.25 1.77 2.62
0 1.53 2.30
+0.25 1.38 1.91
+0.75 1.19 1.49
+1.00 1.08 1.31
+1.50 1.05 1.19

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.78 2.02

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.04 2.62
-0.25 1.79 2.66
0 1.53 2.29
+0.25 1.40 1.88
+0.50 1.41 1.67

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.74 6.45
-1.00 2.92 5.50
-0.75 2.30 3.76
-0.25 1.75 2.62
0 1.53 2.30
+0.25 1.38 1.88
+0.75 1.19 1.49
+1.00 1.08 1.31
+1.50 1.05 1.19

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.99 2.93
-0.25 1.77 2.62
0 1.53 2.32
+0.25 1.40 1.94
+0.50 1.32 1.71
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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