Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
Kick-off 12:30

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat opened at -0.25 against Baladiyyat Al Mehalla in the Second League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.31 / 1.29
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Baladiyyat Al Mehalla than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla +0.25
@ 2.78
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+58.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:30
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.74 / 3.05 -0.25 2.02 / 2.59 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.07 / 2.66 0 1.67 / 2.18 — +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.05 / 2.68 -0.25 2.05 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.76 / 3.06 -0.25 2.04 / 2.60 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.45 7.70
-1.00 4.45 6.55
-0.75 3.04 4.10
-0.25 2.04 2.60
0 1.62 2.10
+0.25 1.40 1.66
+0.75 1.16 1.29
+1.00 1.05 1.14
+1.50 1.02 1.08

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 4.50 6.60
-1.00 4.00 6.00
-0.75 3.00 4.00
-0.50 2.38 3.30
-0.25 2.05 2.68
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.45 1.75
+0.50 1.32 1.55
+0.75 1.23 1.38
+1.00 1.12 1.23
+1.25 1.11 1.19

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.45 7.70
-1.00 4.45 6.55
-0.75 3.04 4.10
-0.25 2.02 2.59
0 1.62 2.10
+0.25 1.39 1.64
+0.75 1.16 1.29
+1.00 1.05 1.14
+1.50 1.02 1.08

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.64 3.36
-0.25 2.18 2.78
0 1.67 2.18
+0.25 1.42 1.70
+0.50 1.30 1.48
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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