Ismaily SC vs Tanta SC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ismaily SC
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 1-1)
Tanta SC
Kick-off 12:30

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ismaily SC opened at -0.25 against Tanta SC in the Second League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
Ismaily SC -0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.39 / 1.21
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Ismaily SC -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.09
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.09 AH points more toward Tanta SC than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Tanta SC +0.25
@ 2.79
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.09
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+46.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
17:01
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.75 / 2.88 -0.25 1.89 / 2.59 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.83 / 3.09 -0.25 2.03 / 2.79 — 0
Bet365 0 1.80 / 2.00 0 1.80 / 2.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.76 / 2.88 -0.25 1.92 / 2.58 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.10 7.50
-1.00 4.00 6.35
-0.75 2.75 3.90
-0.25 1.92 2.58
0 1.60 2.13
+0.25 1.41 1.73
+0.75 1.18 1.35
+1.00 1.06 1.17
+1.50 1.03 1.10

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.80 2.00

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.00 7.70
-1.00 3.92 6.45
-0.75 2.70 3.98
-0.25 1.89 2.59
0 1.58 2.17
+0.25 1.39 1.74
+0.75 1.17 1.36
+1.00 1.05 1.18
+1.50 1.03 1.10

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.40 3.30
-0.25 2.03 2.79
0 1.62 2.29
+0.25 1.41 1.81
+0.50 1.31 1.56
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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