La Viena FC vs AL Nasr SC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

La Viena FC
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 0-0)
AL Nasr SC
Kick-off 12:30 Stadium Al Assiouty Sport Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

La Viena FC opened at -0.25 against AL Nasr SC in the Second League. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward AL Nasr SC from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.23
La Viena FC -0.23

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.43 / 1.17
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
La Viena FC 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward La Viena FC than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
La Viena FC 0
@ 1.87
Best Available Price · BetVictor
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.72
Price Advantage
+8.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:15
Opening
-0.25
12:24
Last Pre-Match
0
12:29
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.99 / 2.49 -0.25 1.96 / 2.56 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.08 / 2.64 0 1.70 / 2.13 0 +0.25
Bet365 0 1.72 / 2.08 0 1.75 / 2.05 0 0
1xBet -0.25 2.01 / 2.49 -0.25 1.98 / 2.56 -0.25 0
BetVictor 0 1.69 / 2.00 0 1.87 / 1.80 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.20 7.50
-1.25 4.70 5.55
-1.00 4.20 6.35
-0.75 2.88 3.95
-0.25 1.98 2.56
0 1.61 2.11
+0.25 1.40 1.70
+0.75 1.17 1.32
+1.00 1.06 1.16
+1.25 1.08 1.12
+1.50 1.03 1.10

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.75 2.05

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.87 1.80

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.20 7.50
-1.25 4.70 5.55
-1.00 4.20 6.35
-0.75 2.88 3.95
-0.25 1.96 2.56
0 1.61 2.11
+0.25 1.40 1.68
+0.75 1.17 1.32
+1.00 1.06 1.16
+1.25 1.08 1.12
+1.50 1.03 1.10

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.08 4.03
-0.50 2.52 3.08
-0.25 2.14 2.60
0 1.70 2.13
+0.25 1.47 1.72
+0.50 1.35 1.52
+0.75 1.21 1.35
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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