Macarthur vs Perth Glory Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Macarthur
Oct 17, 2026 - 06:00
1.86 1.15
Perth Glory
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Macarthur opened at -0.25 against Perth Glory in the A-League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.67
Macarthur -0.67

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Macarthur -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.42
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.42 AH points more toward Macarthur than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Perth Glory +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.42
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.55
Price Advantage
+17.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.63 / 2.88 -0.25 1.63 / 2.88 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.70 / 3.00 -0.25 1.70 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.74 / 2.88 -0.25 1.74 / 2.88 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.65 / 3.00 -0.25 1.65 / 3.00 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.67
xG 1.86 / 1.15 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.63
Macarthur @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.64
Macarthur @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.63 vs 1.64
Market price is 0.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.22 6.80
-1.25 2.95 6.40
-1.00 2.63 5.95
-0.75 2.10 4.10
-0.25 1.74 2.88
0 1.50 2.69
+0.25 1.32 2.17
+0.75 1.16 1.61
+1.00 1.07 1.44
+1.25 1.05 1.36
+1.50 1.04 1.26

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.00 7.00
-1.00 2.68 6.40
-0.75 2.20 4.25
-0.50 1.95 3.45
-0.25 1.70 3.00
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.10
+0.50 1.30 1.85
+0.75 1.21 1.65
+1.00 1.12 1.45
+1.25 1.10 1.38

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.87 3.35
-0.25 1.65 3.00
0 1.42 2.59
+0.25 1.32 2.07
+0.50 1.26 1.80

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.22 6.80
-1.25 2.89 6.40
-1.00 2.63 5.95
-0.75 2.10 4.10
-0.25 1.63 2.88
0 1.41 2.52
+0.25 1.32 2.04
+0.75 1.16 1.61
+1.00 1.07 1.44
+1.25 1.05 1.33
+1.50 1.04 1.26
Primary Bets
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