Atlas U21 vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Atlas U21
Oct 10, 2026 - 15:00
1.25 1.35
Guadalajara Chivas U21
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Atlas U21 opened at 0 against Guadalajara Chivas U21 in the Liga MX U21. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Atlas U21 0
Model–Market Gap
0.09
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.09 AH points more toward Guadalajara Chivas U21 than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Guadalajara Chivas U21 0
@ 2.12
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.09
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.88
Price Advantage
+12.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.72 / 2.12 0 1.72 / 2.12 — 0
1xBet 0 1.72 / 2.12 0 1.72 / 2.12 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.76 / 2.13 -0.25 1.76 / 2.13 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
xG 1.25 / 1.35 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.72
Atlas U21 @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.14
Atlas U21 @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.72 vs 2.14
Market price is 19.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.93 7.80
-1.50 4.60 6.05
-1.25 4.22 5.62
-1.00 3.74 5.25
-0.75 2.76 3.53
-0.25 2.03 2.45
0 1.72 2.12
+0.25 1.50 1.78
+0.75 1.24 1.39
+1.00 1.12 1.22
+1.25 1.09 1.18
+1.50 1.07 1.13
+1.75 1.02 1.07

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.76 2.13
0 1.52 1.85
+0.25 1.37 1.58

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.90 7.80
-1.50 4.60 6.05
-1.25 4.20 5.65
-1.00 3.74 5.25
-0.75 2.76 3.55
-0.25 1.99 2.45
0 1.72 2.12
+0.25 1.50 1.75
+0.75 1.25 1.39
+1.00 1.12 1.22
+1.25 1.09 1.17
+1.50 1.07 1.13
+1.75 1.02 1.07
Primary Bets
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