Tigres UANL U21 vs Toluca U21 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Tigres UANL U21
Final Score
1 – 2
Toluca U21
Kick-off 15:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Tigres UANL U21 opened at 0 against Toluca U21 in the Liga MX U21. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Tigres UANL U21 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Tigres UANL U21 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

No positive price advantage at the valid market line.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:01
Opening
0
14:12
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.89 / 1.91 0 1.89 / 1.91 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.84 / 1.87 0 1.84 / 1.87 — 0
1xBet 0 1.89 / 1.91 0 1.89 / 1.91 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.90 / 1.92 -0.25 1.90 / 1.92 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.00 10.00
-2.00 9.00 9.10
-1.75 6.14 6.19
-1.50 4.80 4.85
-1.25 4.43 4.47
-1.00 4.05 4.10
-0.75 2.93 2.96
-0.25 2.19 2.18
0 1.89 1.91
+0.25 1.62 1.67
+0.75 1.33 1.35
+1.00 1.18 1.19
+1.25 1.14 1.16
+1.50 1.12 1.12
+1.75 1.06 1.07

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.13 2.15
-0.25 1.90 1.92
0 1.66 1.67
+0.25 1.47 1.48
+0.50 1.36 1.37

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.00 9.10
-1.75 6.05 6.20
-1.50 4.80 4.85
-1.25 4.40 4.50
-1.00 4.05 4.10
-0.75 2.93 2.98
-0.25 2.15 2.18
0 1.89 1.91
+0.25 1.62 1.64
+0.75 1.34 1.35
+1.00 1.18 1.19
+1.25 1.15 1.15
+1.50 1.12 1.12
+1.75 1.06 1.06

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.91 2.97
-0.50 2.43 2.48
-0.25 2.15 2.19
0 1.84 1.87
+0.25 1.59 1.61
+0.50 1.45 1.46
+0.75 1.32 1.33
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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