Puebla U21 vs Club Leon U21 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Puebla U21
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 0-1)
Club Leon U21
Kick-off 15:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Puebla U21 opened at 0 against Club Leon U21 in the Liga MX U21. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.25 / 1.35
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Puebla U21 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.09
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.09 AH points more toward Club Leon U21 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Club Leon U21 0
@ 2.09
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.09
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.88
Price Advantage
+11.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:59
Opening
0
14:12
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.88 / 1.92 0 1.74 / 2.09 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.01 / 2.40 -0.25 2.01 / 2.40 — 0
Bet365 0 1.92 / 1.88 0 1.75 / 2.05 — 0
1xBet 0 1.88 / 1.92 0 1.74 / 2.09 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.94 / 1.94 -0.25 1.82 / 2.06 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.88 7.50
-1.50 4.60 5.85
-1.25 4.26 5.46
-1.00 3.74 5.10
-0.75 2.80 3.46
-0.25 2.06 2.45
0 1.74 2.09
+0.25 1.50 1.76
+0.75 1.25 1.38
+1.00 1.12 1.22
+1.25 1.09 1.17
+1.50 1.08 1.14
+1.75 1.03 1.08

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.75 7.00
-1.50 4.40 5.50
-1.25 4.00 5.00
-1.00 3.55 4.50
-0.75 2.75 3.30
-0.50 2.35 2.75
-0.25 2.05 2.38
0 1.75 2.05
+0.25 1.55 1.75
+0.50 1.42 1.58
+0.75 1.32 1.42
+1.00 1.19 1.27
+1.25 1.17 1.23
+1.50 1.15 1.20
+1.75 1.10 1.14

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.06 2.30
-0.25 1.82 2.06
0 1.57 1.78
+0.25 1.40 1.54
+0.50 1.31 1.40

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.85 7.50
-1.50 4.60 5.85
-1.25 4.25 5.50
-1.00 3.74 5.10
-0.75 2.80 3.48
-0.25 2.02 2.45
0 1.74 2.09
+0.25 1.50 1.73
+0.75 1.26 1.38
+1.00 1.12 1.22
+1.25 1.10 1.17
+1.50 1.08 1.14
+1.75 1.03 1.07

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.72 3.19
-0.50 2.30 2.76
-0.25 2.01 2.40
0 1.67 2.05
+0.25 1.47 1.72
+0.50 1.36 1.53
+0.75 1.28 1.37
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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