Sesvete vs Jadran LP Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Sesvete
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Jadran LP
Kick-off 13:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Sesvete opened at -0.25 against Jadran LP in the First NL. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.23
Sesvete -0.23

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.43 / 1.17
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Sesvete -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Jadran LP than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Jadran LP +0.25
@ 2.78
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.02
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.98
Price Advantage
+40.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:15
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.85 / 2.49 -0.25 1.85 / 2.62 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.84 / 1.92 -0.25 1.86 / 2.78 — -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.95 / 2.68 -0.25 1.95 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.87 / 2.49 -0.25 1.87 / 2.62 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.86 / 2.66 -0.25 1.86 / 2.66 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 7.30
-1.25 4.00 5.88
-1.00 3.50 6.20
-0.75 2.59 3.98
-0.25 1.87 2.62
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.38 1.79
+0.75 1.17 1.39
+1.00 1.06 1.22
+1.25 1.07 1.17
+1.50 1.03 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 7.00
-1.25 3.90 6.40
-1.00 3.55 5.90
-0.75 2.68 3.80
-0.50 2.25 3.10
-0.25 1.95 2.68
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.45 1.85
+0.50 1.35 1.62
+0.75 1.25 1.45
+1.00 1.13 1.27
+1.25 1.12 1.24
+1.50 1.10 1.20

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.16 2.82
-0.25 1.86 2.66
0 1.56 2.23
+0.25 1.40 1.81
+0.50 1.36 1.59

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 7.30
-1.00 3.50 6.20
-0.75 2.59 3.98
-0.25 1.85 2.62
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.38 1.77
+0.75 1.17 1.39
+1.00 1.06 1.22
+1.50 1.03 1.13

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.55 3.29
-0.50 2.16 3.21
-0.25 1.86 2.78
0 1.54 2.36
+0.25 1.38 1.89
+0.50 1.29 1.64
+0.75 1.28 1.45
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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