Mladost Ždralovi vs HNK Cibalia Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Mladost Ždralovi
Oct 09, 2026 - 13:30
1.28 1.32
HNK Cibalia
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Mladost Ždralovi opened at -0.25 against HNK Cibalia in the First NL. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Mladost Ždralovi -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward HNK Cibalia than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
HNK Cibalia +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+61.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.82 / 2.62 -0.25 1.82 / 2.62 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.75 -0.25 1.90 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.84 / 2.62 -0.25 1.84 / 2.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
xG 1.28 / 1.32 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.82
Mladost Ždralovi @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.42
Mladost Ždralovi @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.82 vs 2.42
Market price is 24.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.55 7.50
-1.00 3.50 6.35
-0.75 2.56 3.98
-0.25 1.84 2.62
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.38 1.82
+0.75 1.17 1.40
+1.00 1.06 1.22
+1.50 1.03 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.90 6.80
-1.00 3.45 6.25
-0.75 2.60 4.00
-0.50 2.20 3.10
-0.25 1.90 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.90
+0.50 1.35 1.65
+0.75 1.23 1.48
+1.00 1.12 1.30
+1.25 1.10 1.24

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.55 7.50
-1.00 3.50 6.35
-0.75 2.56 3.98
-0.25 1.82 2.62
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.38 1.80
+0.75 1.17 1.40
+1.00 1.06 1.22
+1.50 1.03 1.13
Primary Bets
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