Opatija vs Kustosija Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Opatija
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Kustosija
Kick-off 13:30 Stadium Stadion Kantrida

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Opatija opened at -0.25 against Kustosija in the First NL. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.27 / 1.33
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Opatija -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Kustosija than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Kustosija +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+62.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:15
Opening
-0.25
13:11
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.82 / 2.56 -0.25 1.83 / 2.52 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.84 / 2.77 -0.25 1.91 / 2.55 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.88 / 2.75 -0.25 1.88 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.84 / 2.56 -0.25 1.85 / 2.52 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 6.55
-1.00 3.34 5.50
-0.75 2.49 3.68
-0.25 1.85 2.52
0 1.58 2.17
+0.25 1.41 1.81
+0.75 1.20 1.42
+1.00 1.08 1.24
+1.50 1.05 1.15

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.10 7.00
-1.25 3.70 6.40
-1.00 3.30 5.90
-0.75 2.50 4.00
-0.50 2.15 3.30
-0.25 1.88 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.92
+0.50 1.32 1.68
+0.75 1.23 1.50
+1.00 1.13 1.32
+1.25 1.12 1.26
+1.50 1.10 1.23

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 6.55
-1.00 3.34 5.50
-0.75 2.49 3.68
-0.25 1.83 2.52
0 1.58 2.17
+0.25 1.41 1.79
+0.75 1.20 1.42
+1.00 1.08 1.24
+1.50 1.05 1.15

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.16 2.90
-0.25 1.91 2.55
0 1.61 2.21
+0.25 1.45 1.85
+0.50 1.35 1.64
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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