Dugopolje vs Croatia Zmijavci Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Dugopolje
Oct 11, 2026 - 10:45
1.40 1.20
Croatia Zmijavci
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Dugopolje opened at -0.25 against Croatia Zmijavci in the First NL. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
Dugopolje -0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Dugopolje -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Croatia Zmijavci than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Croatia Zmijavci +0.25
@ 2.85
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.07
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.92
Price Advantage
+48.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.79 / 2.70 -0.25 1.79 / 2.70 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 2.85 -0.25 1.82 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.81 / 2.70 -0.25 1.81 / 2.70 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
xG 1.40 / 1.20 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.79
Dugopolje @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.09
Dugopolje @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.79 vs 2.09
Market price is 14.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.30 7.80
-1.00 3.34 6.55
-0.75 2.46 4.10
-0.25 1.81 2.70
0 1.52 2.29
+0.25 1.36 1.85
+0.75 1.16 1.43
+1.00 1.05 1.24
+1.50 1.02 1.14

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.70 7.00
-1.00 3.30 6.60
-0.75 2.42 4.25
-0.50 2.10 3.30
-0.25 1.82 2.85
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.40 1.98
+0.50 1.32 1.70
+0.75 1.21 1.52
+1.00 1.11 1.32
+1.25 1.10 1.26

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.30 7.80
-1.00 3.34 6.55
-0.75 2.46 4.10
-0.25 1.79 2.70
0 1.52 2.29
+0.25 1.36 1.83
+0.75 1.16 1.43
+1.00 1.05 1.24
+1.50 1.02 1.14
Primary Bets
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