Ittifaq vs Al Thaid Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ittifaq
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Al Thaid
Kick-off 13:15

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ittifaq opened at -0.25 against Al Thaid in the Division 1. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Al Thaid from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.29 / 1.31
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Ittifaq 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Al Thaid than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

No positive price advantage at the valid market line.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
09:42
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.53 / 1.84 0 1.94 / 1.82 — +0.25
Bet365 0 2.02 / 1.78 0 2.02 / 1.78 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.52 / 1.79 0 1.87 / 1.79 — +0.25
BetVictor -0.25 2.20 / 1.67 -0.25 1.96 / 1.84 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.15 4.80
-1.00 4.20 3.86
-0.75 2.97 2.78
-0.25 2.16 2.03
0 1.87 1.79
+0.25 1.63 1.58
+0.75 1.34 1.30
+1.00 1.18 1.15
+1.50 1.12 1.10

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 2.02 1.78

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.20 2.06
-0.25 1.96 1.84
0 1.72 1.62
+0.25 1.52 1.45
+0.50 1.40 1.34

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.95 2.72
-0.50 2.46 2.32
-0.25 2.21 2.08
0 1.94 1.82
+0.25 1.69 1.61
+0.50 1.54 1.48
+0.75 1.40 1.34
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

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