Gillingham vs Brighton U21 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Gillingham
Oct 13, 2026 - 18:00
1.25 1.35
Brighton U21
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Gillingham opened at -0.25 against Brighton U21 in the EFL Trophy. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Gillingham -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Brighton U21 than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Brighton U21 +0.25
@ 2.50
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+50.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.76 / 2.49 -0.25 1.76 / 2.49 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.90 / 2.49 -0.25 1.90 / 2.49 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.85 / 2.50 -0.25 1.85 / 2.50 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.76 / 2.49 -0.25 1.76 / 2.49 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
xG 1.25 / 1.35 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.90
Gillingham @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.52
Gillingham @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.90 vs 2.52
Market price is 24.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.20 10.00
-2.00 6.45 9.20
-1.50 3.58 5.75
-1.25 3.20 5.35
-1.00 2.90 4.90
-0.75 2.28 3.42
-0.25 1.76 2.49
0 1.54 2.19
+0.25 1.42 1.86
+0.75 1.23 1.50
+1.00 1.11 1.34
+1.25 1.09 1.26
+1.50 1.07 1.21
+2.00 1.02 1.05

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.55 5.75
-1.25 3.30 5.25
-1.00 2.85 4.65
-0.75 2.38 3.45
-0.50 2.08 2.85
-0.25 1.85 2.50
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.50 1.95
+0.50 1.40 1.72
+0.75 1.30 1.55
+1.00 1.18 1.40
+1.25 1.16 1.32
+1.50 1.14 1.27

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 5.75
-1.25 3.20 5.35
-1.00 2.90 4.90
-0.75 2.28 3.42
-0.25 1.76 2.49
0 1.54 2.19
+0.25 1.42 1.86
+0.75 1.23 1.50
+1.00 1.11 1.34
+1.25 1.09 1.26
+1.50 1.07 1.21

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.11 2.77
-0.25 1.90 2.49
0 1.65 2.21
+0.25 1.51 1.92
+0.50 1.42 1.72
Primary Bets
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