Hereford vs Hednesford Town Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Hereford
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1.32 1.28
Hednesford Town
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Hereford opened at -0.25 against Hednesford Town in the National League - North. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Hereford -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Hednesford Town than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Hednesford Town +0.25
@ 2.68
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+51.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.69 / 2.69 -0.25 1.79 / 2.46 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 2.00 / 3.19 -0.25 1.86 / 2.65 — +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.75 / 2.85 -0.25 1.82 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.69 / 2.69 -0.25 1.79 / 2.46 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.72 / 2.75 -0.25 1.79 / 2.59 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.86
Hereford @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Hereford @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.86 vs 2.30
Market price is 19.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.50 5.40
-1.25 3.20 5.05
-1.00 2.92 4.65
-0.75 2.30 3.34
-0.25 1.79 2.46
0 1.56 2.15
+0.25 1.43 1.83
+0.75 1.24 1.49
+1.00 1.12 1.33
+1.25 1.10 1.26
+1.50 1.09 1.22

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.55 5.90
-1.25 3.30 5.75
-1.00 2.85 5.25
-0.75 2.35 3.70
-0.50 2.08 3.10
-0.25 1.82 2.68
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.45 1.98
+0.50 1.35 1.72
+0.75 1.26 1.58
+1.00 1.16 1.40
+1.25 1.14 1.32
+1.50 1.13 1.27

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.79 2.59
0 1.55 2.25
+0.25 1.42 1.88

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.50 5.40
-1.25 3.20 5.05
-1.00 2.92 4.65
-0.75 2.30 3.34
-0.25 1.79 2.46
0 1.56 2.15
+0.25 1.43 1.83
+0.75 1.24 1.49
+1.00 1.12 1.33
+1.25 1.10 1.26
+1.50 1.09 1.22

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.10 2.99
-0.25 1.86 2.65
0 1.60 2.32
+0.25 1.45 1.95
+0.50 1.37 1.72
Primary Bets
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