Brackley Town vs South Shields Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Brackley Town
Sep 29, 2026 - 18:45 1H
2 1.35
0 1.25
South Shields
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
-0.25
PRE1 consensus
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Brackley Town opened at -0.25 against South Shields in the National League - North. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Brackley Town -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward South Shields than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Brackley Town -0.25
@ 3.19
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.16
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.22
Price Advantage
+43.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.92 / 1.64 -0.25 3.08 / 1.60 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.19 / 1.66 -0.25 3.19 / 1.66 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.10 / 1.70 -0.25 3.10 / 1.70 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.94 / 1.66 -0.25 2.94 / 1.66 — 0
Superbet -0.50 3.15 / 1.85 -0.50 3.15 / 1.85 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
xG 1.35 / 1.25 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Closing consensus
Market Odds
3.19
Brackley Town @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.22
Brackley Town @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.19 vs 2.22
Market price is 43.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.80 3.48
-1.25 7.20 3.09
-1.00 6.70 2.70
-0.75 4.31 2.17
-0.25 2.94 1.66
0 2.55 1.43
+0.25 2.04 1.32
+0.75 1.57 1.15
+1.00 1.36 1.05
+1.25 1.29 1.03
+1.50 1.22 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 6.60 2.68
-0.75 4.40 2.20
-0.50 3.45 1.95
-0.25 3.10 1.70
0 2.68 1.45
+0.25 2.10 1.35
+0.50 1.85 1.30
+0.75 1.65 1.20
+1.00 1.45 1.11

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.40 3.34
-1.25 7.90 2.97
-1.00 7.30 2.59
-0.75 4.65 2.08
-0.25 3.08 1.60
0 2.69 1.39
+0.25 2.08 1.28
+0.75 1.60 1.12
+1.00 1.39 1.03
+1.25 1.30 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 3.19 1.66
0 2.77 1.42
+0.25 2.21 1.33

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.15 1.85
+0.50 1.76 1.26
Primary Bets
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