Hamburger SV II vs St. Pauli II Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Hamburger SV II
Final Score
0 – 3
(HT 0-2)
St. Pauli II
Kick-off 10:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Hamburger SV II opened at -0.25 against St. Pauli II in the Regionalliga - Nord. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward St. Pauli II from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
Hamburger SV II -0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.41 / 1.19
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Hamburger SV II 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Hamburger SV II than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

No positive price advantage at the valid market line.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
06:00
Last Pre-Match
0
09:59
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.86 / 2.35 0 1.70 / 1.98 0 +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.97 / 2.40 0 1.74 / 2.04 0 +0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.88 / 2.35 0 1.70 / 1.98 0 +0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.60 9.70
-2.00 6.90 8.80
-1.75 4.94 6.09
-1.50 3.92 4.80
-1.25 3.58 4.44
-1.00 3.20 4.05
-0.75 2.56 3.05
-0.25 1.96 2.26
0 1.70 1.98
+0.25 1.51 1.72
+0.75 1.28 1.40
+1.00 1.16 1.26
+1.25 1.14 1.21
+1.50 1.12 1.18
+1.75 1.06 1.11

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.60 9.00
-2.00 6.90 8.80
-1.75 4.95 6.10
-1.50 3.92 4.80
-1.25 3.58 4.45
-1.00 3.20 4.05
-0.75 2.56 3.05
-0.25 1.94 2.26
0 1.70 1.98
+0.25 1.51 1.70
+0.75 1.28 1.40
+1.00 1.16 1.26
+1.25 1.14 1.21
+1.50 1.12 1.18
+1.75 1.06 1.11

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.61 3.11
-0.50 2.27 2.62
-0.25 2.03 2.33
0 1.74 2.04
+0.25 1.55 1.78
+0.50 1.44 1.60
+0.75 1.33 1.45
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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