Bayern München II vs SpVgg Unterhaching Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Bayern München II
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 1-0)
SpVgg Unterhaching
Kick-off 17:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Bayern München II opened at -0.25 against SpVgg Unterhaching in the Regionalliga - Bayern. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.23 / 1.37
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Bayern München II -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.37
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.37 AH points more toward SpVgg Unterhaching than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
SpVgg Unterhaching +0.25
@ 1.89
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.37
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.63
Price Advantage
+16.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:30
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.43 / 1.81 -0.25 2.43 / 1.81 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.55 / 1.89 -0.25 2.55 / 1.89 — 0
1xBet 0 2.03 / 1.67 -0.25 2.46 / 1.81 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.00 7.70
-2.00 9.20 6.75
-1.75 7.49 4.70
-1.50 5.65 3.72
-1.25 5.19 3.34
-1.00 4.75 2.97
-0.75 3.34 2.35
-0.25 2.46 1.81
0 2.15 1.59
+0.25 1.81 1.46
+0.75 1.47 1.24
+1.00 1.30 1.12
+1.25 1.24 1.10
+1.50 1.20 1.08
+1.75 1.12 1.03
+2.00 1.04 1.02

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.50 4.70
-1.50 5.65 3.72
-1.25 5.20 3.34
-1.00 4.75 2.97
-0.75 3.34 2.35
-0.25 2.43 1.81
0 2.15 1.59
+0.25 1.81 1.44
+0.75 1.47 1.24
+1.00 1.30 1.12
+1.25 1.24 1.10
+1.50 1.20 1.08
+1.75 1.12 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.88 2.13
-0.25 2.55 1.89
0 2.23 1.62
+0.25 1.89 1.47
+0.50 1.68 1.37
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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