Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Esenler Erokspor
Oct 19, 2026 - 17:00
1.42 1.21
Mardin 1969
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Esenler Erokspor opened at -0.25 against Mardin 1969 in the 1. Lig. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.19
Esenler Erokspor -0.19

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Esenler Erokspor -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.06
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.06 AH points more toward Mardin 1969 than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Mardin 1969 +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.06
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.93
Price Advantage
+60.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.68 / 2.88 -0.25 1.68 / 2.88 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.70 / 3.10 -0.25 1.70 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.70 / 2.89 -0.25 1.70 / 2.89 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.19
xG 1.42 / 1.21 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.68
Esenler Erokspor @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.08
Esenler Erokspor @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.68 vs 2.08
Market price is 19.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 7.40
-1.25 3.21 6.95
-1.00 2.83 6.50
-0.75 2.22 4.25
-0.25 1.70 2.89
0 1.44 2.50
+0.25 1.33 1.98
+0.75 1.15 1.54
+1.00 1.05 1.33
+1.25 1.04 1.26
+1.50 1.03 1.21

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.25 4.50
-0.50 1.98 3.55
-0.25 1.70 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.10
+0.50 1.27 1.82
+0.75 1.19 1.62

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 7.40
-1.25 3.20 6.95
-1.00 2.83 6.50
-0.75 2.21 4.25
-0.25 1.68 2.88
0 1.44 2.50
+0.25 1.32 1.96
+0.75 1.15 1.53
+1.00 1.05 1.33
+1.25 1.04 1.26
+1.50 1.03 1.21
Primary Bets
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