İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

İstanbulspor
Oct 10, 2026 - 16:00
1.23 1.37
Esenler Erokspor
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

İstanbulspor opened at -0.25 against Esenler Erokspor in the 1. Lig. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
İstanbulspor -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.37
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.37 AH points more toward Esenler Erokspor than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
İstanbulspor -0.25
@ 3.04
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.37
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.59
Price Advantage
+17.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.83 / 1.67 -0.25 2.83 / 1.67 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.04 / 1.74 -0.25 3.04 / 1.74 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.83 / 1.66 -0.25 2.83 / 1.66 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.72 / 1.80 -0.25 2.72 / 1.80 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
xG 1.23 / 1.37 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.04
İstanbulspor @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.59
İstanbulspor @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.04 vs 2.59
Market price is 17.4% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 3.34
-1.25 6.40 3.05
-1.00 6.00 2.74
-0.75 4.09 2.17
-0.25 2.83 1.66
0 2.46 1.43
+0.25 1.98 1.33
+0.75 1.55 1.16
+1.00 1.37 1.06
+1.25 1.28 1.05
+1.50 1.24 1.04

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.72 1.80
+0.25 1.95 1.42

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 3.34
-1.25 6.40 3.05
-1.00 6.00 2.74
-0.75 4.10 2.17
-0.25 2.83 1.67
0 2.46 1.43
+0.25 1.98 1.33
+0.75 1.55 1.16
+1.00 1.37 1.06
+1.25 1.28 1.05
+1.50 1.24 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.46 2.01
-0.25 3.04 1.74
0 2.61 1.48
+0.25 2.08 1.36
+0.50 1.81 1.29
Primary Bets
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