Worthing vs Solihull Moors Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Worthing
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1.33 1.27
Solihull Moors
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Worthing opened at -0.25 against Solihull Moors in the National League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Worthing -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Solihull Moors than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Solihull Moors +0.25
@ 3.17
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+77.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.65 / 2.78 -0.25 1.58 / 2.97 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.72 / 2.95 -0.25 1.62 / 3.17 — 0
Bet365 -0.50 1.98 / 3.10 -0.50 1.98 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.66 / 2.79 -0.25 1.59 / 2.98 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
xG 1.33 / 1.27 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.62
Worthing @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.27
Worthing @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.62 vs 2.27
Market price is 28.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.70 8.60
-1.50 2.97 7.10
-1.25 2.71 6.65
-1.00 2.38 6.20
-0.75 2.00 4.26
-0.25 1.59 2.98
0 1.40 2.62
+0.25 1.31 2.14
+0.75 1.15 1.67
+1.00 1.06 1.46
+1.25 1.05 1.36
+1.50 1.04 1.30

Bet365 Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.30 6.40
-1.25 3.00 5.90
-1.00 2.68 5.50
-0.75 2.20 3.90
-0.50 1.98 3.10
-0.25 1.72 2.75
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.42 2.08
+0.50 1.35 1.82
+0.75 1.24 1.65
+1.00 1.15 1.45
+1.25 1.13 1.38
+1.50 1.12 1.32

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.70 8.70
-1.50 2.97 7.10
-1.25 2.70 6.65
-1.00 2.38 6.20
-0.75 1.99 4.25
-0.25 1.58 2.97
0 1.40 2.62
+0.25 1.30 2.12
+0.75 1.15 1.66
+1.00 1.06 1.46
+1.25 1.05 1.36
+1.50 1.04 1.30

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.82 3.53
-0.25 1.62 3.17
0 1.42 2.81
+0.25 1.34 2.28
+0.50 1.28 1.99
Primary Bets
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