Altrincham vs Aldershot Town Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Altrincham
Oct 10, 2026 - 11:30
1.40 1.20
Aldershot Town
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Altrincham opened at -0.25 against Aldershot Town in the National League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
Altrincham -0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Altrincham -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Aldershot Town than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Aldershot Town +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.07
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.92
Price Advantage
+61.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.64 / 2.88 -0.25 1.64 / 2.88 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.70 / 3.08 -0.25 1.71 / 3.10 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.78 / 2.75 -0.25 1.70 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.64 / 2.88 -0.25 1.64 / 2.88 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
xG 1.40 / 1.20 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.71
Altrincham @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.09
Altrincham @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.71 vs 2.09
Market price is 18.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.28 6.95
-1.25 2.92 6.50
-1.00 2.62 6.05
-0.75 2.12 4.15
-0.25 1.64 2.88
0 1.42 2.49
+0.25 1.32 2.02
+0.75 1.16 1.58
+1.00 1.06 1.40
+1.25 1.05 1.31
+1.50 1.04 1.25

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.30 6.80
-1.25 3.00 6.60
-1.00 2.68 6.25
-0.75 2.20 4.25
-0.50 1.95 3.45
-0.25 1.70 3.00
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.10
+0.50 1.30 1.85
+0.75 1.21 1.65
+1.00 1.12 1.45
+1.25 1.11 1.38
+1.50 1.10 1.32

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.28 6.95
-1.25 2.92 6.50
-1.00 2.62 6.05
-0.75 2.12 4.15
-0.25 1.64 2.88
0 1.42 2.49
+0.25 1.32 2.02
+0.75 1.16 1.58
+1.00 1.06 1.40
+1.25 1.05 1.31
+1.50 1.04 1.25

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.96 3.51
-0.25 1.71 3.10
0 1.47 2.68
+0.25 1.36 2.14
+0.50 1.29 1.85
Primary Bets
More