Hartlepool vs Tamworth Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Hartlepool
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1.27 1.33
Tamworth
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Hartlepool opened at -0.25 against Tamworth in the National League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Hartlepool -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Tamworth than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Tamworth +0.25
@ 2.47
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+46.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.89 / 2.35 -0.25 1.90 / 2.35 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.42 -0.25 1.98 / 2.42 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.91 / 2.37 -0.25 1.92 / 2.37 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.95 / 2.47 -0.25 1.95 / 2.47 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.64 / 2.08 -0.25 1.92 / 2.40 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
xG 1.27 / 1.33 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.90
Hartlepool @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.45
Hartlepool @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.90 vs 2.45
Market price is 22.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.30 10.50
-2.00 7.50 9.30
-1.75 5.15 7.00
-1.50 4.05 5.35
-1.25 3.59 4.96
-1.00 3.28 4.55
-0.75 2.54 3.29
-0.25 1.92 2.37
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.48 1.75
+0.75 1.25 1.42
+1.00 1.13 1.25
+1.25 1.11 1.21
+1.50 1.09 1.17
+1.75 1.04 1.10
+2.00 1.02 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.00 5.75
-1.25 3.55 5.25
-1.00 3.30 4.50
-0.75 2.60 3.45
-0.50 2.20 2.75
-0.25 1.98 2.42
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.52 1.82
+0.50 1.42 1.65
+0.75 1.30 1.48
+1.00 1.19 1.32
+1.25 1.16 1.27
+1.50 1.14 1.23

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.92 2.40
0 1.65 2.07
+0.25 1.49 1.76

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.95 2.47
+0.25 1.53 1.83

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.15 7.00
-1.50 4.05 5.35
-1.25 3.58 4.95
-1.00 3.28 4.55
-0.75 2.52 3.28
-0.25 1.90 2.35
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.47 1.73
+0.75 1.25 1.41
+1.00 1.13 1.25
+1.25 1.11 1.21
+1.50 1.09 1.17
+1.75 1.04 1.10
Primary Bets
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