Aldershot Town vs Carlisle Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Aldershot Town
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1.13 1.47
Carlisle
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Aldershot Town opened at -0.25 against Carlisle in the National League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.31
Aldershot Town +0.31

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Aldershot Town -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.56
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.56 AH points more toward Carlisle than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Carlisle +0.25
@ 1.81
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.56
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.50
Price Advantage
+20.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.66 / 1.68 -0.25 2.59 / 1.71 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.71 / 1.79 -0.25 2.73 / 1.81 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.85 / 1.75 -0.25 2.85 / 1.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.67 / 1.69 -0.25 2.60 / 1.74 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.71 / 1.73 -0.25 2.70 / 1.73 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.31
xG 1.13 / 1.47 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.73
Aldershot Town @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.99
Aldershot Town @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.73 vs 2.99
Market price is 8.7% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.50 4.20
-1.50 5.80 3.34
-1.25 5.45 3.04
-1.00 5.05 2.70
-0.75 3.59 2.20
-0.25 2.60 1.74
0 2.31 1.51
+0.25 1.93 1.40
+0.75 1.55 1.21
+1.00 1.36 1.10
+1.25 1.29 1.09
+1.50 1.24 1.07
+1.75 1.15 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.75 2.75
-0.75 3.90 2.25
-0.50 3.30 2.00
-0.25 2.85 1.75
0 2.42 1.52
+0.25 2.05 1.40
+0.50 1.80 1.32
+0.75 1.62 1.24
+1.00 1.42 1.14

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.70 1.73
0 2.36 1.50
+0.25 1.95 1.39

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.50 4.20
-1.50 5.80 3.34
-1.25 5.45 3.04
-1.00 5.05 2.70
-0.75 3.58 2.19
-0.25 2.59 1.71
0 2.31 1.51
+0.25 1.92 1.39
+0.75 1.54 1.21
+1.00 1.36 1.10
+1.25 1.29 1.08
+1.50 1.24 1.07
+1.75 1.16 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.80 2.35
-0.50 3.06 2.04
-0.25 2.73 1.81
0 2.39 1.57
+0.25 2.00 1.44
+0.50 1.76 1.36
+0.75 1.58 1.25
Primary Bets
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