Tamworth vs Sutton Utd Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Tamworth
Sep 30, 2026 - 18:45
1.45 1.15
Sutton Utd
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 6 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Tamworth opened at -0.25 against Sutton Utd in the National League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.27
Tamworth -0.27

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Tamworth -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Tamworth than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Sutton Utd +0.25
@ 2.52
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.02
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.02
Price Advantage
+24.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.90 / 2.30 -0.25 1.90 / 2.35 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.72 / 2.10 +0.25 1.51 / 1.81 — +0.25
Bet365 0 1.75 / 2.05 0 1.75 / 2.05 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.92 / 2.32 -0.25 1.92 / 2.36 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.02 / 2.40 -0.25 2.00 / 2.40 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.94 / 2.36 -0.25 1.94 / 2.39 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.27
xG 1.45 / 1.15 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.90
Tamworth @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.98
Tamworth @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.90 vs 1.98
Market price is 4.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 7.20 9.90
-1.75 5.05 6.80
-1.50 3.98 5.30
-1.25 3.59 4.90
-1.00 3.28 4.55
-0.75 2.54 3.28
-0.25 1.92 2.36
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.48 1.75
+0.75 1.25 1.42
+1.00 1.13 1.25
+1.25 1.11 1.21
+1.50 1.09 1.17
+1.75 1.04 1.10

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 5.50
-1.25 3.90 5.00
-1.00 3.55 4.50
-0.75 2.68 3.30
-0.50 2.30 2.68
-0.25 2.02 2.38
0 1.75 2.05
+0.25 1.55 1.78
+0.50 1.45 1.60
+0.75 1.32 1.45
+1.00 1.19 1.27
+1.25 1.17 1.24
+1.50 1.15 1.21

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.94 2.39
0 1.66 2.05
+0.25 1.49 1.74

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.00 2.40
+0.25 1.55 1.78

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.05 6.80
-1.50 3.98 5.30
-1.25 3.58 4.90
-1.00 3.28 4.55
-0.75 2.52 3.28
-0.25 1.90 2.35
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.47 1.73
+0.75 1.25 1.41
+1.00 1.13 1.25
+1.25 1.11 1.21
+1.50 1.09 1.17
+1.75 1.04 1.10

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.71 3.55
-0.50 2.29 2.88
-0.25 2.00 2.52
0 1.69 2.15
+0.25 1.51 1.81
+0.50 1.40 1.61
+0.75 1.28 1.45
Primary Bets
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