Hartlepool vs Harrogate Town Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Hartlepool
Sep 29, 2026 - 18:45
1.30 1.30
Harrogate Town
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Hartlepool opened at -0.25 against Harrogate Town in the National League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Hartlepool -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Harrogate Town than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Hartlepool -0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.36
Price Advantage
+35.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.41 / 1.85 -0.25 2.97 / 1.58 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.57 / 1.94 -0.25 3.20 / 1.64 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.50 / 1.95 -0.25 3.10 / 1.65 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.44 / 1.86 -0.25 2.99 / 1.60 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.50 / 1.93 -0.25 2.80 / 1.67 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.51 / 1.88 -0.25 2.78 / 1.59 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
0
xG 1.30 / 1.30 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.20
Hartlepool @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.36
Hartlepool @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.20 vs 2.36
Market price is 35.6% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 3.93
-1.50 7.20 3.14
-1.25 6.80 2.84
-1.00 6.40 2.46
-0.75 4.30 2.03
-0.25 2.99 1.60
0 2.67 1.39
+0.25 2.14 1.31
+0.75 1.65 1.15
+1.00 1.43 1.05
+1.25 1.33 1.04
+1.50 1.27 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 7.00 2.60
-0.75 4.50 2.10
-0.50 3.55 1.85
-0.25 3.10 1.65
0 2.75 1.42
+0.25 2.20 1.35
+0.50 1.95 1.27
+0.75 1.70 1.19
+1.00 1.48 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.78 1.59
0 2.77 1.37
+0.25 2.17 1.37

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.80 1.67
+0.25 2.18 1.42

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.30 3.92
-1.50 7.20 3.14
-1.25 6.80 2.83
-1.00 6.40 2.46
-0.75 4.30 2.02
-0.25 2.97 1.58
0 2.67 1.39
+0.25 2.12 1.30
+0.75 1.64 1.15
+1.00 1.43 1.05
+1.25 1.33 1.04
+1.50 1.27 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.59 1.86
-0.25 3.20 1.64
0 2.82 1.43
+0.25 2.26 1.34
+0.50 1.96 1.28
Primary Bets
More