AFC Fylde vs Carlisle Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

AFC Fylde
Sep 29, 2026 - 18:45 1H
0 1.12
1 1.48
Carlisle
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
-0.25
PRE1 consensus
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

AFC Fylde opened at 0 against Carlisle in the National League. The current market consensus is 0. The closing line is -0.25. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.32
AFC Fylde +0.32

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
AFC Fylde 0
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward Carlisle than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Carlisle 0
@ 2.07
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.63
Price Advantage
+27.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.83 / 1.83 0 1.72 / 1.95 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.85 / 1.96 0 1.80 / 2.07 0 0
Bet365 0 1.82 / 1.98 0 1.78 / 2.02 -0.25 0
1xBet 0 1.83 / 1.83 0 1.72 / 1.95 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 2.07 / 2.25 -0.25 2.02 / 2.35 -0.25 0
BetVictor 0 1.80 / 1.87 0 1.72 / 1.96 -0.25 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.32
xG 1.12 / 1.48 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Closing consensus
Market Odds
2.02
AFC Fylde @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
3.04
AFC Fylde @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.02 vs 3.04
Market price is 33.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.70 9.20
-2.00 7.80 8.20
-1.75 5.35 6.40
-1.50 4.15 4.95
-1.25 3.80 4.55
-1.00 3.34 4.10
-0.75 2.64 3.06
-0.25 1.98 2.22
0 1.72 1.95
+0.25 1.54 1.70
+0.75 1.29 1.39
+1.00 1.16 1.24
+1.25 1.13 1.19
+1.50 1.11 1.16
+1.75 1.05 1.09
+2.00 1.03 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.25 6.25
-1.50 4.10 4.80
-1.25 3.70 4.40
-1.00 3.45 4.00
-0.75 2.68 3.10
-0.50 2.30 2.60
-0.25 2.05 2.30
0 1.78 2.02
+0.25 1.60 1.75
+0.50 1.48 1.60
+0.75 1.35 1.45
+1.00 1.23 1.30
+1.25 1.20 1.26
+1.50 1.18 1.23
+1.75 1.12 1.16

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.25 2.56
-0.25 1.98 2.26
0 1.72 1.96
+0.25 1.54 1.71
+0.50 1.43 1.55

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.27 2.65
-0.25 2.02 2.35
+0.25 1.57 1.78
+0.50 1.47 1.62

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.70 9.30
-2.00 7.80 9.30
-1.75 5.30 6.45
-1.50 4.15 4.95
-1.25 3.78 4.55
-1.00 3.34 4.15
-0.75 2.62 3.05
-0.25 1.96 2.21
0 1.72 1.95
+0.25 1.53 1.68
+0.75 1.28 1.38
+1.00 1.16 1.24
+1.25 1.13 1.19
+1.50 1.11 1.16
+1.75 1.05 1.09

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.48 4.30
-0.75 2.74 3.23
-0.50 2.34 2.69
-0.25 2.07 2.38
0 1.80 2.07
+0.25 1.60 1.79
+0.50 1.48 1.62
+0.75 1.35 1.46
+1.00 1.23 1.31
Primary Bets
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