Hartlepool vs Worthing Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Hartlepool
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 0-1)
Worthing
Kick-off 11:30 Stadium Victoria Park

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Hartlepool opened at -0.25 against Worthing in the National League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.30 / 1.30
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Hartlepool -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Worthing than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Worthing +0.25
@ 2.52
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+44.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:51
Opening
-0.25
07:04
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
11:30
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.52 / 3.20 -0.25 1.82 / 2.33 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.80 / 2.77 0 1.70 / 2.20 0 +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.60 -0.25 1.95 / 2.50 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.52 / 3.20 -0.25 1.83 / 2.35 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.90 / 2.52 -0.25 1.88 / 2.52 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.84 / 2.56 -0.25 1.87 / 2.47 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.60 10.50
-2.00 6.85 9.30
-1.75 4.80 6.80
-1.50 3.78 5.30
-1.25 3.42 4.90
-1.00 3.04 4.45
-0.75 2.38 3.22
-0.25 1.83 2.35
0 1.62 2.10
+0.25 1.50 1.81
+0.75 1.27 1.47
+1.00 1.14 1.29
+1.25 1.11 1.23
+1.50 1.09 1.19
+1.75 1.04 1.12
+2.00 1.02 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.80 5.75
-1.25 3.45 5.25
-1.00 3.10 4.65
-0.75 2.42 3.45
-0.50 2.15 2.75
-0.25 1.95 2.50
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.50 1.85
+0.50 1.42 1.68
+0.75 1.30 1.52
+1.00 1.18 1.35
+1.25 1.16 1.30
+1.50 1.14 1.25

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.87 2.47
0 1.61 2.13
+0.25 1.46 1.80

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.88 2.52
+0.25 1.50 1.88

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.80 6.80
-1.50 3.78 5.30
-1.25 3.42 4.90
-1.00 3.04 4.45
-0.75 2.38 3.20
-0.25 1.82 2.33
0 1.62 2.10
+0.25 1.48 1.80
+0.75 1.26 1.46
+1.00 1.14 1.29
+1.25 1.11 1.23
+1.50 1.09 1.19
+1.75 1.04 1.12

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.54 3.42
-0.50 2.18 2.79
-0.25 1.95 2.50
0 1.70 2.20
+0.25 1.55 1.90
+0.50 1.45 1.71
+0.75 1.32 1.53
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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