Eyüpspor vs Göztepe Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Eyüpspor
Oct 12, 2026 - 17:00
1.22 2.33
Göztepe
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Eyüpspor opened at -0.25 against Göztepe in the Süper Lig. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+1.05
Eyüpspor +1.05

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Eyüpspor -0.25
Model–Market Gap
1.30
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 1.30 AH points more toward Göztepe than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Göztepe +0.25
@ 1.68
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
1.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.26
Price Advantage
+33.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.97 / 1.61 -0.25 2.97 / 1.61 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.15 / 1.57 -0.25 3.15 / 1.57 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.10 / 1.68 -0.25 3.10 / 1.68 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+1.05
xG 1.22 / 2.33 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.15
Eyüpspor @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
4.81
Eyüpspor @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.15 vs 4.81
Market price is 34.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 7.00 2.68
-0.75 4.50 2.20
-0.50 3.55 1.95
-0.25 3.10 1.68
0 2.68 1.45
+0.25 2.15 1.35
+0.50 1.85 1.27
+0.75 1.65 1.19
+1.00 1.45 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.00 3.35
-1.25 7.50 2.99
-1.00 6.95 2.66
-0.75 4.45 2.12
-0.25 2.97 1.61
0 2.59 1.39
+0.25 2.07 1.30
+0.75 1.60 1.14
+1.00 1.43 1.04
+1.25 1.31 1.03
+1.50 1.24 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.54 1.83
-0.25 3.15 1.57
0 2.74 1.36
+0.25 2.14 1.27
+0.50 1.87 1.22
Primary Bets
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