Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Alanyaspor
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00
1.35 0.93
Erzurumspor FK
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Alanyaspor opened at -0.25 against Erzurumspor FK in the Süper Lig. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.37
Alanyaspor -0.37

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Alanyaspor -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.12
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.12 AH points more toward Alanyaspor than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Erzurumspor FK +0.25
@ 3.18
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.12
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.17
Price Advantage
+46.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.65 / 3.12 -0.25 1.65 / 3.12 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.64 / 3.15 -0.25 1.64 / 3.18 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.76 / 3.12 -0.25 1.76 / 3.12 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.37
xG 1.35 / 0.93 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.64
Alanyaspor @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.85
Alanyaspor @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.64 vs 1.85
Market price is 11.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.84 8.40
-1.25 3.34 10.00
-1.00 2.92 8.10
-0.75 2.22 4.84
-0.25 1.76 3.12
0 1.48 2.81
+0.25 1.28 2.16
+0.75 1.11 1.53
+1.00 1.02 1.31
+1.50 1.03 1.18

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.34 8.70
-1.00 2.92 8.10
-0.75 2.22 4.85
-0.25 1.65 3.12
0 1.42 2.70
+0.25 1.28 2.03
+0.75 1.12 1.53
+1.00 1.02 1.31

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.95 3.64
-0.25 1.64 3.18
0 1.37 2.69
+0.25 1.28 2.04
+0.50 1.22 1.77
Primary Bets
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