Preußen Münster vs Rot-Weiß Essen Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Preußen Münster
Final Score
3 – 3
(HT 2-0)
Rot-Weiß Essen
Kick-off 17:00 Stadium LVM-Preußenstadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Preußen Münster opened at -0.25 against Rot-Weiß Essen in the 3. Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.76
Preußen Münster +0.76

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.22 / 2.02
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Preußen Münster -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
1.01
handicap points

Model prices the match 1.01 AH points more toward Rot-Weiß Essen than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Rot-Weiß Essen +0.25
@ 1.75
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
1.01
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.34
Price Advantage
+30.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:15
Opening
-0.25
14:04
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.74 / 1.69 -0.25 2.92 / 1.62 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.82 / 1.78 -0.25 3.04 / 1.75 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.00 / 1.75 -0.25 3.00 / 1.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.74 / 1.69 -0.25 2.92 / 1.62 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.32 / 1.59 -0.25 2.32 / 1.55 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.90 5.80
-1.50 7.40 3.20
-1.25 6.85 2.87
-1.00 6.35 2.56
-0.75 4.25 2.10
-0.25 2.92 1.62
0 2.52 1.41
+0.25 2.06 1.31
+0.75 1.62 1.15
+1.00 1.42 1.06
+1.25 1.32 1.04
+1.50 1.26 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 3.45
-1.25 6.60 3.10
-1.00 6.00 2.75
-0.75 4.15 2.30
-0.50 3.45 2.00
-0.25 3.00 1.75
0 2.50 1.50
+0.25 2.05 1.38
+0.50 1.80 1.30
+0.75 1.60 1.22
+1.00 1.42 1.12
+1.25 1.35 1.11
+1.50 1.30 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.32 1.55
0 2.13 1.37
+0.25 1.80 1.30

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.40 3.20
-1.25 6.85 2.88
-1.00 6.35 2.56
-0.75 4.25 2.08
-0.25 2.92 1.62
0 2.52 1.41
+0.25 2.06 1.31
+0.75 1.60 1.15
+1.00 1.42 1.06
+1.25 1.32 1.04
+1.50 1.26 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.98 2.30
-0.50 3.45 2.01
-0.25 3.04 1.75
0 2.64 1.50
+0.25 2.12 1.39
+0.50 1.85 1.32
+0.75 1.64 1.25
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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