SV Meppen vs Stuttgart II Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

SV Meppen
Oct 10, 2026 - 12:00
1.32 1.28
Stuttgart II
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

SV Meppen opened at -0.25 against Stuttgart II in the 3. Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
SV Meppen -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Stuttgart II than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Stuttgart II +0.25
@ 2.70
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+52.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.75 / 2.52 -0.25 1.75 / 2.52 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.85 / 2.70 -0.25 1.85 / 2.70 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.85 / 2.50 -0.25 1.85 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.76 / 2.52 -0.25 1.76 / 2.52 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.85 / 2.62 -0.25 1.85 / 2.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.85
SV Meppen @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
SV Meppen @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.85 vs 2.30
Market price is 19.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.10 10.00
-2.00 6.25 9.30
-1.75 4.40 7.70
-1.50 3.50 5.85
-1.25 3.14 5.40
-1.00 2.81 4.95
-0.75 2.26 3.50
-0.25 1.76 2.52
0 1.54 2.25
+0.25 1.41 1.90
+0.75 1.22 1.51
+1.00 1.11 1.33
+1.25 1.09 1.27
+1.50 1.07 1.22
+1.75 1.02 1.14
+2.00 1.02 1.06

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.55 5.90
-1.25 3.30 5.50
-1.00 3.00 5.00
-0.75 2.38 3.55
-0.50 2.10 3.00
-0.25 1.85 2.68
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.45 1.95
+0.50 1.38 1.70
+0.75 1.27 1.55
+1.00 1.17 1.38
+1.25 1.15 1.32
+1.50 1.13 1.27

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.85 2.62
+0.25 1.47 1.91

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.40 7.70
-1.50 3.50 5.85
-1.25 3.14 5.40
-1.00 2.81 4.95
-0.75 2.26 3.50
-0.25 1.75 2.52
0 1.54 2.25
+0.25 1.41 1.88
+0.75 1.22 1.51
+1.00 1.11 1.33
+1.25 1.09 1.27
+1.50 1.07 1.22
+1.75 1.02 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.43 3.76
-0.50 2.10 3.05
-0.25 1.85 2.70
0 1.59 2.34
+0.25 1.45 1.95
+0.50 1.36 1.72
+0.75 1.26 1.54
Primary Bets
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