Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Sao Joao del Rei
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Paracatu
Kick-off 21:30

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Sao Joao del Rei opened at -0.25 against Paracatu in the Mineiro - 3. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 2 valid books, with 100% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.31 / 1.29
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Sao Joao del Rei -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 2 / 2 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Paracatu than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 valid books · 100% agreement · Insufficient

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
01:31
Opening
-0.25
18:21
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.08 / 1.60 -0.25 3.08 / 1.60 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.08 / 1.60 -0.25 3.08 / 1.60 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.10 3.28
-1.00 7.10 2.62
-0.25 3.08 1.60
0 2.66 1.37
+0.25 2.08 1.28
+1.00 1.40 1.04
+1.50 1.25 1.02

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.10 3.28
-1.00 7.10 2.62
-0.25 3.08 1.60
0 2.66 1.37
+0.25 2.08 1.28
+1.00 1.40 1.04
+1.50 1.25 1.02
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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